climate change

International Climate Negotiations: The Road to Copenhagen and beyond

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Apr 052009

On April 3, 2009 I joined Nigel Purvis, the former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for oceans, environment and science and current President of Climate Advisers, at and American Law Institute and American Bar Association conference on “Climate and the Law” in Washington DC . In my presentation on “International Climate Negotiations: The Road to Copenhagen and beyond”, I outlined key elements of a global climate deal and a roadmap for what results have to be reached by the UN conference in Copenhagen in December, and what details of the global climate deal could be negotiated in 2010 and 2011.

In particular, I discussed potential avenues for solution regarding four most contentious issues: Contractual matters (most importantly, the question of whether agreement should take the form of a new protocol or an amendment to the Framework Convention), criteria and outlook for reaching comparable action amongst industrialized countries, the ambition of developing countries’ NAMAs versus the level of funding from industrialized countries, as well as the subject of the future financing architecture and governance.

[Please check back; presentation will be online soon]

CCAP Discusses Views of Carbon Offsetting in the U.S. at Copenhagen Carbon Markets Insights Conference

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Apr 022009

from CCAP Newsletter

On March 18, 2009, Alexander Ochs, CCAP’s director of international policy, discussed “Views on Carbon Offsetting in the United States” at Point Carbon’s Carbon Market Insights Conference in Copenhagen, Denmark.“International offsets like the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and domestic offsets will likely play an important role in any future U.S. cap and trade program,” Ochs told delegates from around the world. “However, it is important to understand that offsets are only one mechanism that U.S. lawmakers are currently considering in their effort to contain the cost of a federal carbon market. There is also a certain contradiction in the debate between lowering the cost of mitigating emissions on the one hand, and not wanting to send money oversees to make our competitors’ economies more efficient.”Ochs agreed with co-panelist Peter Zapfel from the European Commission that the CDM alone is not sufficient for reducing rapidly growing greenhouse gas emissions in the developing world. “Major emitters like the developing countries China and Mexico must contribute more to the solution than simply offsetting reduction commitments made elsewhere — and they are willing to do so,” Ochs said. “Sectoral commitments for energy-intense industries are the next important step on the staircase to a full integration of these countries into the global carbon market.”

You can find my presentation here: ochs-futureofoffsetsinus_carbonmarketinsights2009.pdf

Mexico to Propose Emissions Trading for Oil, Power, Center Says

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Mar 302009

By Mathew Carr, March 19 2009 (Bloomberg) — Mexico will likely propose emissions-trading programs for its oil and electricity industries when it completes a climate-protection plan next month, the Washington-based Center for Clean Air Policy said.

Emissions trading may start in Mexico in 2011 and expand to cement and metals, Alexander Ochs, director of international policy at the center, said yesterday on the sidelines of the Carbon Market Insights conference in Copenhagen.

“They have committed political leadership that understands emerging countries have to make a contribution to a global climate pact,” Ochs said. “They want to demonstrate they are progressive.” The center, an emissions-trading think tank, is advising Mexico and China in their climate plans, he said. Full article: Bloomberg_Mex

Key Findings from our Developing Country Project presented at Latin American Regional Workshop

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Mar 292009

On March 25, at a workshop in Santiago, Chile, I presented our research teams’ results on Mexico and Brazil as part of CCAP’s Developing Country Project. We held the workshop at the headquarters of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (also a co-host of the event). Officials from seven South American nations attended the workshop, gathering to discuss the status of the international climate change negotiations and to hear about the climate-related research CCAP teams in Mexico and Brazil had conducted. The topics of discussion included:

• Nationally appropriate mitigation actions, a key feature of the Bali Roadmap;
• Analysis of GHG mitigation options in Brazil’s forestry sector;
• The GHG and other implications of expanding the production of biofuels, both ethanol and biodiesel, in Brazil; and
• Lessons learned from a first attempt to propose sectoral goals for GHG emissions in Mexico’s cement and oil refining industries.The participants expressed a strong interest in seeing this work continue and for the project to expand into other countries, such as Chile and Argentina. The CCAP Developing Country Project is funded by the UK Department for Foreign Investment and Development (UK DFID), the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and the Tinker Foundation.

Please find my introduction here: ochs-chiledfidworkshopintro_090325.pdf
and my presentation on NAMAs and the Global Deal on Climate Change here: ochs-chilenamatheglobaldealoncc_090525.pdf

GHG Mitigation Opportunities in Brazil and Mexico, NAMAs and the Global Deal on Climate Change

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Mar 242009

GHG Mitigation Opportunities in Brazil and Mexico

ECLAC, Santiago, Chile

March 25, 2009

Presentation given at ECLAC, Santiago, Chile on March 25, 2009

INTRODUCTION TO WORKSHOP

– Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP)
– Assisting Developing Country Climate Negotiators through Analysis & Dialogue
– Workshop overview: GHG Mitigation Opportunities in Brazil and Mexico

NAMAS AND THE GLOBAL DEAL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
– Overarching goals and status quo
– Emissions
– Overview of International Climate Negotiations
– Developing countries are already doing more than many believe
– International Policy Context
– NAMA Requirements
– How financing could work
– Technology Finance
– Technology Finance Assistance to Encourage Stronger Actions
– Sources for Technology Finance
– China
– Mexico
– South Africa & South Korea
– Chile
– Brazil
– Sectoral Approach
– NAMAs and Sectoral
– Conclusions

[Please find presentation here on ECLAC website]

International Policy Director Outlines Expectations for Post-2012 International Climate Treaty

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Feb 022009

Source: CCAP newsletter

At the 2nd Annual Carbon Markets North America Conference in Miami from Jan. 15-16, CCAP International Policy Director Alexander Ochs discussed the outcomes of the recent UN Climate Conference in Poznan, coupled with implications for global carbon markets and prospects of international and U.S. climate policy. “While disappointing to many, it is important to see the results of Poznan in the right light,” Ochs said. “Among experts, expectations had never been high. This COP was a stop-over on the way from the seminal 2007 Bali meeting to the 2009 conference in Copenhagen – the much-anticipated summit that will have to deliver the basic architecture for a post-2012 climate deal.” Poznan delivered an operational work-plan for a precursor to Copenhagen. Ochs outlined some of the necessary components of a future global climate agreement between the United States, Europe and major emerging economies. “We will need the architectural basics of the deal in Copenhagen, including industrialized countries’ emissions targets,” Ochs said. “The years 2010 and 2011 can then be used to reach agreement on details of a deal between them and the developing countries. If the U.S. moves quickly at home, it will be able to join the EU in its leadership position internationally — and that is what the world is really waiting for.” (Source: CCAP Jan 2009 Newsletter)

Hope & Realism in EU & US Dialogue on Climate Change

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Jan 132009

from Germany.info, Jan 9, 2009

When Frank Loy, former Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs and climate advisor to Barack Obama during the presidential campaign, was asked to address the question of how the United States can contribute to international climate policy negotiations, he chose to quote Al Gore. “Nature doesn’t do bail outs….we have to do the bail out,” he said, explaining the reality of what’s needed to fight climate change. Loy was speaking at a dinner discussion held at the German Embassy in Washington DC on Thursday, January 8. The event was part of a two day “EU and US Dialogue on Climate Change” organized by the Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP). It gave delegates the chance to share new ideas on policy approaches and aimed to increase the exchange between policymakers in the EU and US. Frank Loy’s audience was an international group of climate experts. They know how challenging it will be to achieve an international climate agreement. They also know that, despite the global excitement and expectations of President-elect Obama’s presidency, there are limits to what one leader can accomplish. (…)

Alexander Ochs, Director of International Policy at the Center for Clean Air Policy, says that what is achieved in the next 10 months may prove to be crucial for the climate in decades to come. “With an ambitious incoming US administration and the EU’s urgent need for a strong partner in its leadership efforts, one can’t overestimate the importance of transatlantic communication and cooperation. So stakeholder meetings like this US-EU dialogue create crucial stepping stones towards this goal.” Full text

CCAP – AICGS Joint Climate Policy Sessions

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Dec 172008

Here is a blurb from the CCAP Newsletter on the German -US climate summit which I organized for AICGS and CCAP.

On Nov. 17, CCAP joined forces with the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies (AICGS) as hosts of a German-U.S. climate policy dialogue. The event brought a distinguished delegation to Washington lead by Matthias Machnig, state secretary in the Federal Ministry of the Environment, and Reinhard Buetikofer, the chairman of the German Green Party.At a political roundtable in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, CCAP outlined its framework for international climate strategy including “sectoral approaches.” Mr. Machnig outlined his vision of international burden-sharing in the fight against global warming as a “cascade of responsibilities.” Mr. Buetikofer then urged both sides of the Atlantic and collaborate in a practical, forward-looking and outcome-oriented manner.The roundtable was followed by a luncheon that featured a discussion with former Undersecretary of State Frank Loy and 30 representatives from German and U.S. industry. In the afternoon, a workshop was held at The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace where participants presented their German-U.S. policy reports. Alexander Ochs, CCAP director of International Policy, summed up the dialogue by saying, “Today’s events have shown that we might approach a political tipping point in transatlantic climate relations. Germany, and the United States show a new level of mutual understanding and willingness to cooperate.”

Transatlantic Climate and Energy Cooperation: The Way Forward

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Nov 232008

Podcast

Interview moderated by Dr. Jack Janes, Executive Director of the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies (AICGS), Johns Hopkins University, speaks with Camilla Bausch and Michael Mehling of Ecologic and me about transatlantic climate policy. http://www.aicgs.org/analysis/audio/climate1108.aspx

Feature of me in Atlantic Faces, atlantic-community.org

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Oct 202008

In the interview section I addressed the following questions:

1. What are your priorities in your work at the Center for Clean Air Policy?
2. Do you expect significantly more transatlantic agreement on climate policy after the election of a new US president and Congress? What kind of common initiatives would you like to see?
3. What is the single greatest challenge facing the transatlantic alliance today?

Read the full feature here

Think Tank Analysis: The World Needs a Third Industrial Revolution

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Sep 082008

Feature on, and summary of, my July 2008 study Overcoming the Lethargy: Climate Change, Energy Security, and the Case for a Third Industrial Revolution on Atlantic Community

Faster, Higher, Stronger: China Strives to Become a Climate Champion

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Sep 012008

When the Olympic fire was set alight during the Games’ opening ceremony, there was a giant wave of smog hanging over Beijing. Like any other day of the year, the air pollution was several times above what the World Health Organization considers safe. Many competitors were so concerned about their personal wellbeing that they restricted their visit to the Ancient City to the days on which they compete, thus missing out on a once-in-a-lifetime chance to inhale the legendary Olympic spirit for the duration of the games. Overpopulation was not amongst the problems the athlete village faced. And however clean, colorful, and crystal-clear the opening ceremonies were – when the cameras conveyed the first images of spectators with masks over their mouths, the hosts’ delight soured rather suddenly. Most of us, however, were not surprised. After all, this is the China we imagine. A political apparatus so keen to receive world recognition and a population so eager to catch up with the wealthy elsewhere have unleashed such a thriving economy that there is no room for environmental concerns, least of all protective regulation.

It is this dusky image of China that has to a large extent shaped our diplomatic attitude towards this rapidly industrializing giant. Nowhere more so than in the United States, the continuous finger-pointing at China has been used as an excuse for not taking more vigorous action on global environmental problems at home. READ THIS EXCLUSIVE OP-ED FOR WWW.ALEXANDEROCHS.COM

Profiles in Transatlantic Cooperation: Alexander Ochs

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Aug 212008

In: Carbon & Climate Law Review 2/2008, pp. 219-21

You have worked on transatlantic climate relations for several years, both as a researcher and as a policy adviser. In a report written in 2006, you suggested that there is “little that cannot be done if Americans and Europeans agree – but very little that can be done if they do not”, expressing concern that climate change might become an issue dividing the transatlantic partners further apart. Has this assessment changed since you first wrote this, and if so, in what ways?

The first quote is actually an assessment made by Jessica Tuchman Mathews, President of the Carnegie Endowment, concerning global issues in general. Certainly, climate change has gained infamous prominence over the course of the last two decades as a topic dividing the two traditional partners Europe and the United States. It often heads lists of transatlantic disagreements. Transatlantic dispute over climate change well precedes the current U.S. administration. Ever since the topic of climate change has appeared on the international agenda, the United States has been made responsible for the slow progress in the negotiation of an international climate regime. But the dispute escalated when the Bush ‘43 government unilaterally declared the Kyoto protocol “dead”. Subsequently, Bush also broke his 2000 presidential campaign pledge to set mandatory reduction targets for CO2 emissions from… Read the whole interview here: C&CLR.Interview.pdf

U.S.-Klimapolitik jenseits von Washington: Wider die Ignoranz des Weißen Hauses

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Jul 292008

Die amerikanischen Bundesstaaten schreiten in der Klimapolitik voran und werden so zum Wegbereiter einer neuen U.S.-Regierung.

Es war der erste Schritt der neuen Regierung von internationaler Bedeutung: Kurz nach seiner Amtseinführung 2001 ließ Präsident George W. Bush seine Sicherheitsberaterin Condoleezza Rice das Kyoto-Protokoll wortwörtlich für „tot“ erklären. Unilateral, ohne jede Unterredung mit den Führern anderer Staaten, revidierte er damit die Position seines Vorgängers Bill Clinton. Auch von seinem Wahlversprechen, verbindliche Höchstmengen für den Kohlendioxidausstoß von Kraftwerken festzulegen, wollte der neue Mann im Oval Office nun nichts mehr wissen. Seitdem wartet die Weltgemeinschaft vergebens auf die Demonstration amerikanischer Führungsstärke in der Klimapolitik. Anfangs erhob Bush gar Zweifel an den wissenschaftlichen Grundlagen zum Klimawandel. Dann stellte er ein nationales Klimaprogramm vor, deren groß angekündigte Ziele bei näherem Hinsehen wenig mehr als business as usual entsprachen. Auf internationaler Ebene glänzte Bush ebenfalls mit vollmundiger Rhetorik, muss sich aber vor allem für eines verantworten: sein weitgehendes Nichtstun. HEINRICH BÖLL STIFTUNG

Europa Riding the Hegemon? Transatlantic Climate Policy

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Jul 282008

Alexander Ochs & Detlef F. Sprinz

Prominent and committed supporters of friendly transatlantic relations have identified climate change as the most important global problem in this century. To counteract major impacts of climate change requires cooperation among the major emitters of so-called greenhouse gases or agreement on compensation for impacts. Since 2001, the U.S. has abandoned the international treaty architecture of the Kyoto Protocol which is presumed to be a first step in the direction of limiting global climate change. Since much of the rest of the world – but not all – countries have subscribed to the architecture of the Kyoto Protocol, a major rift has arisen between Europe and the U.S. with the former being a fervent defender of the architecture and the latter designating it as unworkable and against its interests. In this article, we will investigate the history of transatlantic climate policy and relations, the major items of contention, as well as options for a rapprochement on global climate change.

2008 Book Chapter in Hegemony Constrained: Evasion, Modification, and Resistance to American Foreign Policy, edited by D. B. Bobrow

2005 Ridgway Center Working Paper

Overcoming the Lethargy: Climate Change, Energy Security, and the Case for a Third Industrial Revolution

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Jul 112008

Climate change and the secure supply of energy are among the biggest challenges of the twenty-first century. The problem is immense: While global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are currently rising faster than at any given time before, they will have to be halved by the middle of this century in order to prevent the most dangerous effects of global warming. And while energy-related emissions are already responsible for the largest share of GHG emissions, global energy demand is estimated to rise by 50 percent or more between now and 2030. The key problem we are facing is that our economic system, as it has developed since the second industrial revolution, is fundamentally built on the consumption of fossil fuels. If we do not succeed in altering the ways we produce and use energy, we risk running into a catastrophe open-eyed. AICGS Policy Report #34

Volle Kraft voraus: Wie Obama und McCain die amerikanische Energiepolitik revolutionieren wollen

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Jun 272008

Das Thema Energie bestimmte den Präsidentschaftswahlkampf der vergangenen Woche. John McCain und Barack Obama stellten ihre Pläne zur Sicherung der amerikanischen Energieversorgung vor. Das Allerbeste vorneweg: Beide Kandidaten nehmen den Klimawandel als eine große Bedrohung ihres Landes wahr. Sie erkennen an, dass Klimaschutz eine radikale Änderung der Art und Weise erfordert, wie Energie hergestellt und genützt wird. Um die schlimmsten Folgen der globalen Erwärmung noch verhindern zu können, sind viele Maßnahmen in den unterschiedlichsten Bereichen unserer Wirtschafts- und Sozialsysteme nötig. Energieproduktion und –konsum kommt jedoch eine Schlüsselrolle zu.

Die Vorschläge beider Kandidaten weichen von der klimapolitischen Passivität der Bush-Regierung in geradezu konterkarierender Form ab: Beide fordern eine ambitionierte nationale Klimaschutzpolitik mit verpflichtenden Reduktionszielen für den Treibhausgasausstoß der großen Energieproduzenten. Das Kernstück bildet bei beiden Bewerbern ein nationales Emissionshandelssystem. Auch international wollen Obama und McCain die USA in eine klimapolitische Führungsposition bringen. Deutsche Welle WAHLCHECK

Neue Chance gegen globale Erwärmung

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Jun 252008

Tony Blair sucht beim G8-Gipfel den transatlantischen Schulterschluss in der Klimapolitik. Doch Amerika wird sich kaum rühren.

Mit dem Hinweis, der Klimawandel sei für ihn die langfristig wichtigste globale Herausforderung, sagte Tony Blair der globalen Erwärmung den Kampf an. Zusammen mit der Entwicklung Afrikas gilt dem Thema das Hauptaugenmerk des Gipfels der acht größten Industrieländer im schottischen Gleneagles vom 6. bis 8. Juli. Doch während etwa bei der Entschuldung der ärmsten afrikanischen Staaten bereits im Vorfeld Einigkeit erzielt wurde, besteht in der Klimafrage die Spaltung zwischen den Vereinigten Staaten und dem Rest der G8 fort: Der größte Verursacher von Treibhausgasen verweigert unter der Führung von George W. Bush weiterhin jegliche Zusagen zur Emissionsreduzierung – entgegen allen wissenschaftlichen Empfehlungen. DIE ZEIT, 7 Jul 2005

From Mars and Venus Down to Earth: Understanding the Transatlantic Climate Divide

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Jun 252008

Josh Busby & Alexander Ochs

We examine the sources of the transatlantic climate divide between the US and Europe. First, we take up the proposition that differences in the material conditions of the US and Europe are responsible for the dustup over global warming. We argue that relative power positions do not determine a nation’s choice of broad climate policy approaches. Moreover, we emphasize that mitigating climate change will ultimately require wrenching policy adjustments for both the US and Europe. While there may be short-run differences in cost profiles, these should not pose such a hindrance that careful policy design cannot overcome them. Next, we evaluate the claim that a difference in values or culture is responsible for the rift. A highly oversimplified version of the argument holds that Europeans just care about climate change more than the Americans. We find evidence for this to be mixed. We suggest that differences between the US and Europe derive not so much from material interests or cultural values but from different political systems that shape the interests and values that have influence on policy. America’s political system permits certain interests—namely climate skeptics and business interests—to exercise veto power over external environmental commitments. European decision makers, by contrast, face environmental movements more capable of exercising influence over electoral politics. The interaction of the two systems internationally has hobbled global climate policy cooperation. Negotiations are complicated by inadequate sensitivity to each other’s internal political conditions. Better understanding of each other’s domestic politics and more careful institutional design of climate change policies may yet overcome these obstacles. 2005 SAIS-BROOKINGS BOOK CHAPTER

Der Klimawandel in der amerikanischen Wirtschaft: Immer mehr Unternehmen befürworten die Regulierung von Treibhausgasen

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May 292008

The times they are a-changing, die Zeiten ändern sich, sang Bob Dylan in den 1960ern, und heute, da der Liedermacher ein großes Revival erlebt, gilt dieser Satz für eine Akteursgruppe, auf die die Emanzipations-, Friedens- und Umweltbewegung von einst so gar nicht abhob: die amerikanische Industrie. Noch vor nicht allzu langer Zeit meuterte eine selbsternannte Global Climate Coalition (GCC) von vorwiegend US-amerikanischen Unternehmen gegen jede Form verpflichtender Maßnahmen zum Klimaschutz und stellte selbst die wissenschaftlichen Grundlagen des Klimawandels trotzig in Frage. Doch fast zeitgleich mit dem Ausstieg der Bush-Regierung aus dem Kyoto-Protokoll liefen der GCC die Mitglieder davon, 2002 schließlich löste sich die Vereinigung auf. Heute gehören einige der Opponenten von einst zu den größten Befürwortern nationaler und internationaler klimapolitischer Maßnahmen. HEINRICH BÖLL STIFTUNG

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